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THE CALL
The government says fuel supply is secure until mid-April. After that, they're using words like "uncertainty." Here's what they're not saying clearly: six tankers due between mid-April and mid-May have already been cancelled or postponed. Asian refiners — where 90% of our refined fuel comes from — are now in what the ABC calls "crunch time" as their own crude stocks deplete. The supply problem isn't arriving in April — the supply decisions that determine April are being made right now, and they're going against us. If you haven't locked fuel pricing for the next 60 days, you're betting your Q2 margins on a ceasefire that neither side wants. Lock rates today.
TLDR:
Six fuel tankers for mid-April to mid-May cancelled; government says supply secure until mid-April only.
US and Israel struck Iran's Natanz nuclear site overnight. Ceasefire draft reportedly on the table.
Bowser diesel averaging $2.95/L nationally — Perth highest at $2.96, Melbourne cheapest at $2.94.
KEY NUMBERS
Brent: US$112 (+3.3%) | AUD/USD: 0.709 | Diesel (national avg bowser): $2.95/L (+30 cpl wow) | Gasoil crack: ~165 Acpl (ACCC, 18 Mar — likely widening given Brent +4% since) | ASX 200: 8,428 (futures -1.0%)
MONDAY DEEP DIVE: ENERGY & FUEL
Bowser diesel snapshot
Capital city diesel averaging $2.94-$2.98/L (Petrol Spy live, 23 March, 391 stations). Adelaide's cheapest diesel ($2.91) has caught up to other capitals — the gap is closing. Hobart is the most expensive metro at $2.98 average. Diesel stock at 30 days (Bowen, Saturday). But the real number to watch: 6 of 81 inbound tankers for mid-April to mid-May cancelled.
Diesel is likely to rise 10-15 cpl this week to $3.05-$3.10/L as the Friday Brent spike ($112) passes through and Asian refinery output tightens.
Regional breakdown
Region | Bowser ($/L) | WoW | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
Sydney | ~$2.95 | +14 cpl | 🟠 |
Melbourne | ~$2.94 | +16 cpl | 🟠 |
Brisbane | ~$2.95 | +14 cpl | 🟠 |
Adelaide | ~$2.95 | +13 cpl | 🟠 |
Perth | ~$2.96 | +15 cpl | 🔴 |
Hobart | ~$2.98 | +11 cpl | 🔴 |
Darwin | ~$2.93 | +8 cpl | 🟠 |
Canberra | ~$2.95 | +15 cpl | 🟠 |
Regional VIC | ~$3.00-$3.15 | +18 cpl | 🔴 |
Regional NSW | ~$3.00-$3.20 | +18 cpl | 🔴 |
Regional QLD | ~$3.00-$3.15 | +16 cpl | 🟠 |
Regional WA | ~$3.05-$3.20 | +20 cpl | 🔴 |
Capital data: Petrol Spy live, 23 March. Perth 🔴 on highest capital average and WA regional supply stress. Hobart 🔴 on single-supply-chain vulnerability via Melbourne and highest capital metro average. Regional WA 🔴: Ongerup still rationing, Gnowangerup Fuels reporting allocation exhaustion. 80+ NSW stations without diesel per 7NEWS.
What changed
Ampol deferred Lytton refinery maintenance from June to August — adding ~300M litres to domestic supply. Government extended refinery subsidies (FSSP) to 2030 on Friday, with higher margin support thresholds. OFAC issued Iran General License U on Friday — 140M barrels of Iranian oil at sea unsanctioned until April 19.
Operator action
Construction (tender season): If you're pricing any job for Q2 delivery, build diesel at $3.10/L minimum into your cost plan — not today's $2.95. Any fixed-price tender submitted this week without a fuel escalation clause is a guaranteed margin loss.
All operators: Lock 30-60 day fixed-rate diesel with your supplier today. The pass-through from Friday's $112 Brent hasn't hit the bowser yet. You have 3-5 days to buy at $2.95 before it's $3.10.
What's your fuel supplier telling you about April allocations? Reply with what you're hearing — the intel from the ground is better than anything in the ACCC report.
The owner who locked rates last Monday saved 30 cpl. The one who locks today saves the next 15. The one who waits pays both.
Next edition: Tuesday 24 March 2026, 6:00 AM AEST